Last month M.J. Rosenberg, the editor of the respected Israel Policy Forum (IPF),
wrote this optimistic evaluation of the prospects for a US mediated peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
Trying desperately to remain optimistic myself, I share his thoughts with you.
“Before a new conventional wisdom sets in,
it is important to state that neither the onset of the 2004 political season in this country
(which began, of course, once the off-year election ended)
nor the upcoming elections in Israel need tie President Bush's hands
as he pushes for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front in advance of any action against Saddam Hussein.
Start with the elections here.
Prior to November 5th, President Bush had to tread very carefully on matters relating to the Arab-Israeli conflict,
which, like Social Security, constitutes a ‘third rail’ in American politics.
Coming to office following one of the most controversial elections in history,
the President was understandably reluctant to push hard on an issue fraught with political danger
and in which success is far from guaranteed.
But, after an election like this year's, the President has far fewer constraints.
His party controls the House and Senate, and he is a favorite to win re-election.
He need no longer move tentatively.
The upcoming election in Israel also strengthens Bush's hands,
although the media is quoting Israeli officials as saying that anything related to negotiations is now on hold.
(According to the New York Times, the President's envoy to the region,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield, disagrees; he says that U.S. efforts are not taking a holiday).
An intermission now makes no sense.
On the contrary, this is a propitious moment for the United States to push hard for negotiations.
That is because elections in Israel are scheduled for about the time most observers expect hostilities in Iraq to begin,
a time when both Israelis and Palestinians will be reluctant to complicate the United States' mission.
For the Palestinian Authority, any actions which suggest sympathy for Saddam Hussein would be the last straw with Bush.
As for the Israelis, they have told Bush that they will do
everything in their power to ensure that they are not drawn into the
conflict. They know that the first thing on Saddam Hussein's wish list
is to convince the Arab masses that his struggle is not about weapons
of mass destruction, but about Zionism and Jerusalem.
But the United States needs more than just that from Israel.
It also needs some progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The President is worried about that;
he needs to defuse Arab anger which could complicate relations with friendly Arabs at the moment we may need them most.
His response is to push Israelis and Palestinians to accept his ‘roadmap’
toward his vision of ‘two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side.’
The Israeli election could help. Perhaps the primary reason
Ariel Sharon called new elections, rather than acceding to right-wing
conditions for establishing a narrow government, was because he was
told that he must reject Bush's ‘roadmap.’ Sharon refused,
not so much because he likes the Bush plan as because he treasures his
relations with Bush. Bush needs to take advantage of this relationship
with Sharon to end the violence and begin serious negotiations. This
has been Bush's goal since coming to office but, in his first two
years, he moved tentatively, as befits a minority President.
But he isn't a minority President now.
He has unique credibility with Sharon and with the Israeli people.
Initially, this was not the case.
His father was not popular with Israelis, and Bush had the misfortune of following the admired Bill Clinton.
But the President is popular now, and he is viewed as a stalwart backer of the Jewish state.
That means he is in a strong position to help Israelis
achieve the goal every public opinion poll shows they want. They want
the violence to end, and they want negotiations to begin. Sharon
himself says that is what he wants, stating this week that Israel's
economic future depends on reaching an agreement with the Palestinians.
He went to elections - elections he preferred to avoid - rather than
reject Bush's plan. It now all comes down to George W. Bush. History
tells us that progress toward Middle East peace only occurs when the
President of the United States intervenes directly. This President,
with his new mandate, is uniquely positioned to do just that. It is
time for him to act.”
—Rabbi Harry A. Manhoff, Ph.D.
